The matrices of results in figure 5 show for each scenario, all possible combinations of transformation from a land use to a NFUA. More precisely, the area in km² of NUAs that can be converted to each of the NFUAs, as well as the total area that can be converted to a NFUA from each category, is listed. In addition, the same results are expressed in the number of converted patches of each kind of NUA to each type of NFUA. The proportion of patches has also been calculated.
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| Figure 5: Output matrices - Sensitivity analysis according to the 3 scenarios |
In the initial scenario, the number of LWCU and forests converted into any kind of NFUA is very similar, with a slight advantage in favour of the forests (48 and 52% of the total number). However, the total area that can be converted to any type of NFUAs is about twice as big for the forests than for the LWCU (1,535 km² for the forests against 0,814 km² for the LWCU). Concerning the types of NFUAs, there a more possible urban farms than allotment gardens (25% of the total number of NFUAs are allotments gardens with a total area of 0,254 km² and 75% are urban farms with a total area of 2,096 km²). The average size of allotment gardens is equal to 3734,77 m² (they had to be smaller than 5 000 m²) and the average size of forests is equal to 10 640,5 m² (their size had to be between 5 001 and 20 000 m²). In total, there are 265 possible NFUAs for a total area of 2,35 km².
In the first scenario, the maximum distance to urban areas was divided by two, for both categories of NFUAs. As a result, the number and area of NFUAs decreased for each type, but the sharper decrease is observed in the number of resulting urban farms. Only 143 urban farms are remaining, for 197 farms in the initial scenario, it's a reduction of 27%. We observe a reduction of 10% in the allotment gardens number (from 68 AG to 61). We observe this difference in the reduction magnitude also by looking at the areas. For allotment gardens, the areas reduced from 0,254 to 0,224 km², which is a reduction of 11,8%. For urban farms, the area decreased from 2,096 to 1,421 km², which is a reduction of 32,2%. The reduction in size is even bigger than the reduction in the number of patches, especially for urban farms. The trend is reversed for the number of LWCU and forests converted into any kind of NFUA. The number of LWCU represents now a larger proportion of NUAs transformed into NFUAs than forests, with more or less 60%, while they represented 48% before. This is due to the fact that LWCU are in general very close to urban areas, while it is not necessarily true for forests. In total, we move from 265 NFUAs (total area of 2,35 km²) in the initial scenario to 204 NFUAs (total area of 1,645 km²) in this first scenario.
For the second scenario, the number and area of allotment gardens remains unchanged, because the criteria were the same as in scenario 0. The number of urban farms considerably increased, from 197 to 280. The total area of urban farms more than doubled, from 2,096 km² to 4,594 km². This area increase is mainly due to the forests transformed into urban farms rather than explained by LWCU transformed into urban farms, as the maximum area of LWCU was only equal to 34 557,64 m². Both the proportion of urban farms compared to allotment gardens and the proportion of converted forests compared to converted LWCU have grown.
In the first scenario, the maximum distance to urban areas was divided by two, for both categories of NFUAs. As a result, the number and area of NFUAs decreased for each type, but the sharper decrease is observed in the number of resulting urban farms. Only 143 urban farms are remaining, for 197 farms in the initial scenario, it's a reduction of 27%. We observe a reduction of 10% in the allotment gardens number (from 68 AG to 61). We observe this difference in the reduction magnitude also by looking at the areas. For allotment gardens, the areas reduced from 0,254 to 0,224 km², which is a reduction of 11,8%. For urban farms, the area decreased from 2,096 to 1,421 km², which is a reduction of 32,2%. The reduction in size is even bigger than the reduction in the number of patches, especially for urban farms. The trend is reversed for the number of LWCU and forests converted into any kind of NFUA. The number of LWCU represents now a larger proportion of NUAs transformed into NFUAs than forests, with more or less 60%, while they represented 48% before. This is due to the fact that LWCU are in general very close to urban areas, while it is not necessarily true for forests. In total, we move from 265 NFUAs (total area of 2,35 km²) in the initial scenario to 204 NFUAs (total area of 1,645 km²) in this first scenario.
For the second scenario, the number and area of allotment gardens remains unchanged, because the criteria were the same as in scenario 0. The number of urban farms considerably increased, from 197 to 280. The total area of urban farms more than doubled, from 2,096 km² to 4,594 km². This area increase is mainly due to the forests transformed into urban farms rather than explained by LWCU transformed into urban farms, as the maximum area of LWCU was only equal to 34 557,64 m². Both the proportion of urban farms compared to allotment gardens and the proportion of converted forests compared to converted LWCU have grown.
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